What does $200 per barrel mean for you?
A crude price on a screen is abstract. What people actually feel is the number on the pump, and that number moves by very different amounts from one country to the next. Move the crude price on this chart and watch petrol change across 37 countries at once.
The gap between them is mostly tax. In Norway or the Netherlands, fixed duty already makes up most of the pump price, so a jump in crude barely shifts the total. In the United States, where tax is a fraction of the pump price, the same jump in crude passes almost straight through to drivers.
What does $200 per barrel mean for you?
Projected pump prices by country at different crude oil price scenarios.
| Country | At $120 crude | At $200 crude |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | $2.92 | $4.22 |
| Denmark | $2.67 | $3.96 |
| Germany | $2.58 | $3.79 |
| France | $2.43 | $3.52 |
| Greece | $2.40 | $3.46 |
| Switzerland | $2.46 | $3.46 |
| Finland | $2.36 | $3.39 |
| Portugal | $2.32 | $3.38 |
| Austria | $2.21 | $3.29 |
| Belgium | $2.25 | $3.29 |
| Ireland | $2.16 | $3.11 |
| Italy | $2.19 | $3.10 |
| Romania | $2.05 | $3.04 |
| Hungary | $1.97 | $3.04 |
| United Kingdom | $2.08 | $3.00 |
| Poland | $1.92 | $2.92 |
| Norway | $2.06 | $2.91 |
| Czech Republic | $1.97 | $2.88 |
| Spain | $1.94 | $2.86 |
| Australia | $1.84 | $2.85 |
| Sweden | $1.98 | $2.82 |
| Turkey | $1.52 | $2.43 |
| China | $1.44 | $2.26 |
| Mexico | $1.42 | $2.14 |
| Brazil | $1.36 | $2.09 |
| Canada | $1.35 | $2.08 |
| Thailand | $1.33 | $2.08 |
| South Korea | $1.29 | $1.91 |
| United States | $1.14 | $1.87 |
| South Africa | $1.26 | $1.86 |
| Japan | $1.17 | $1.72 |
| India | $1.07 | $1.63 |
| Nigeria | $0.96 | $1.60 |
| Russia | $0.88 | $1.37 |
| Saudi Arabia | $0.66 | $1.10 |
| Indonesia | $0.64 | $1.06 |
How this is built
Each country has a fixed duty component and a variable component that tracks the crude price. The model is pump price = base tax + (crude price × margin factor × exchange rate). Margin factors were back-derived from March 2026 retail prices at a Brent price of $112.42, so the calculator reproduces observed prices at that point and scales outward from there.
Two caveats. Prices in the table are converted to US dollars per litre for comparison, so the US figure is shown per litre even though Americans buy by the gallon. And the model holds tax and exchange rates fixed: governments often cut fuel duty during a shock, which would soften the rises shown here.
Sources
Fuel duty rates: OECD Tax Database, EU DG TAXUD and national revenue authorities (2025 rates). Retail prices used to derive margins: GlobalPetrolPrices.com (March 2026). Current crude: EIA via OilPriceAPI.