Are we entering Oil Shock 3.0?
Five data-driven visualisations tracking the emerging global energy crisis.
The escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has put nearly one-fifth of global oil supply at risk, sending Brent crude past $120 per barrel and drawing immediate comparisons to the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Below, five interactive charts track this crisis in real time — comparing the current price trajectory, economic exposure, and forecast accuracy against the two previous shocks that reshaped the global economy. All visualisations are freely available under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
How does this compare to past oil shocks?
The 1973 embargo quadrupled oil prices in months. The 1979 revolution doubled them again. In both cases, the shock triggered recessions across the industrialised world. The chart below overlays the current price trajectory on those historical episodes, adjusted for inflation, so you can judge for yourself whether 2026 is tracking toward a comparable disruption.
Are we on track for the worst oil shock in 50 years?
Historical shocks overlaid on the current trajectory, CPI-adjusted. The red shaded area shows the range of outcomes if 2026 follows the same relative path as the 1973 or 1979 crises.
Four more ways to read the shock
What does the US government think happens next — and have they been right?
The January 2026 outlook had Brent drifting into the low $60s, months before the spring spike it never saw coming.
View the full chart →What does $200 per barrel mean for you?
Push crude to $200 and pump prices barely move in high-tax Europe, while US drivers take almost the full hit.
View the full chart →Which countries are most exposed to an oil shock?
South Korea and Japan buy in more than 88% of their energy. The United States imports around 5%.
View the full chart →Which parts of the economy face the highest cost shock?
Transport and industry burn the most US energy, so they carry the largest bill when crude climbs.
View the full chart →