Are we entering Oil Shock 3.0?
Five data-driven visualisations tracking the emerging global energy crisis.
The escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has put nearly one-fifth of global oil supply at risk, sending Brent crude past $120 per barrel and drawing immediate comparisons to the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Below, five interactive charts track this crisis in real time — comparing the current price trajectory, economic exposure, and forecast accuracy against the two previous shocks that reshaped the global economy. All visualisations are freely available under CC BY 4.0.
How does this compare to past oil shocks?
The 1973 embargo quadrupled oil prices in months. The 1979 revolution doubled them again. In both cases, the shock triggered recessions across the industrialised world. The chart below overlays the current price trajectory on those historical episodes, adjusted for inflation, so you can judge for yourself whether 2026 is tracking toward a comparable disruption.
Are we on track for the worst oil shock in 50 years?
Historical shocks overlaid on the current trajectory, CPI-adjusted. The red shaded area shows the range of outcomes if 2026 follows the same relative path as the 1973 or 1979 crises.
What does $200 per barrel mean for you?
Projected pump prices by country at different crude oil price scenarios.*
Who gets hurt the most?
Not every country is equally exposed. Nations that import a large share of their energy — particularly in Europe and East Asia — face far steeper economic consequences than domestic producers. The map below uses World Bank data to show energy import dependency by country, revealing which economies are most vulnerable when supply lines are disrupted.
Which countries are most exposed to an oil shock?
Energy import dependency by country. Deeper red = higher exposure.
Can we trust the official forecasts?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes monthly price forecasts through its Short-Term Energy Outlook. But how accurate have these predictions been during past crises? The chart below tracks EIA forecasts against actual Brent crude prices, showing where official projections diverged from reality — and what that means for their current outlook.
What does the US government think happens next — and have they been right?
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast vs actual Brent crude prices.
Where does the pain land?
An oil shock does not hit every sector equally. Transportation and industrial manufacturing absorb the most direct impact, but the ripple effects reach residential heating, commercial operations, and electricity generation. This heatmap breaks down U.S. energy consumption by sector, showing which parts of the economy face the steepest cost increases as crude prices rise.
Which parts of the economy face the highest cost shock?
US energy consumption by sector. Cell size = consumption volume. Colour = year-on-year cost increase.